By Winston A. Marbella
Joseph Estrada in action as a moview star
M ANILA – It is not easy to separate the real Joseph Ejercito from the reel Joseph Estrada.
Like the movie heroes he portrayed, deposed former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada is invincible: He keeps bouncing back from the jaws of defeat, bloody but unbowed, his full head of hair seemingly glued in place by a secret concoction of hair spray, gelatin and pomade made hip by Elvis Presley in the style of the matinee idols of the Fifties, and later by John Travolta in “Grease.”
Manila’s coffee shops are abuzz with stories that Estrada is planning to run for mayor of Manila in 2013. As the stories go, he has purchased a house to establish legal residency.
Storied dynasties
For the meantime, the former President who began his political career as mayor of San Juan is playing coy. He admits he has roots in the poorer Manila district of Tondo, but he has not decided to run for mayor but is thinking seriously about it.
For the storied political dynasties of the Aquinos, Arroyos, Marcoses and Estradas, the elections of 2010 will go down in family history as their year of second chances—and things have never looked lovelier the second time around.
For Liberal Party Sen. Benigno S. Cojuangco Aquino III, the road to the presidency has been magical. He went to Malacanang with a large mandate to rid the country of graft and corruption and to complete the unfulfilled presidency of his mother and the martyred dreams of his father.
Reshaped destiny
History has a strange way of reshaping destiny. Unheralded personalities can turn out to be good presidents—and high-potential personalities can turn out to be duds. Just like in the movies.
The presidency merely provides great opportunity for historic action. It takes a wise president to turn great opportunity into historic results.
Joseph Ejercito Estrada had his chance after a landslide victory in 1998. He frittered it away with wine, women and song.
He was lucky to get a second chance in the elections of 2010—and he redeemed himself adequately the second time around. He may have lost his second chance–for who could resist the Aquino juggernaut?–but at least he got to settle an old score with Nacionalista Party candidate, Sen. Manuel Villar.
A then Speaker Villar of the House of Representatives had astutely railroaded an abrupt end to Estrada’s presidency in 2001 by fast-breaking the transmittal of the impeachment resolution to the Senate without floor debate.
With his creditable performance as a candidate the second time around, Estrada set the stage for the presidential ambition of his son, Jinggoy , who ran neck to neck with the popular actor, reelectionist Sen. Bong Revilla, for the top slot in the Senate.
The deposed president has also solidified his own dynasty—another son, JV Ejercito, has been elected to Congress and is leaving his mayoralty post in San Juan to his mother, Guia Gomez.
When the new senators take office, Jinggoy Estrada will cross paths with another presidential timber, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who also won as senator.
Restoration of sorts
His mother, the irrepressible Imelda Romualdez Marcos, was elected to occupy her son’s vacated seat in the House, while his older sister Imee defeated a first cousin, Michael Keon, for governor of their stronghold, Ilocos Norte province, in a restoration of sorts of the Marcos dynasty.
Aside from his mother, Ferdinand Jr. will have another ally in Congress, first-cousin reelectionist Rep. Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, son of former Ambassador Kokoy Romualdez, Imelda’s beloved younger brother.
The younger Romualdez will be in a House populated by no less than President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, and her two sons, Dato, representing a district in Camarines Sur, and the older Mickey, a party list representative. The First Gentleman’s brother, Ignacio, was reelected congressman in the fifth district of Negros Occidental.
It is too early to read Mickey’s future political plans, but the Senate cannot be ruled out in the off-year elections of 2013, when Sen. Chiz Escudero will be running for reelection prior to possibly running for president in 2016, a quest he declared but abandoned in 2009.
Ironically, Escudero looks headed for a collision course with former Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, whom he supported for vice president against Sen. Mar Roxas, who is likely to pursue the presidency in 2016. Roxas had given way to Aquino when his fledgling campaign failed to take off against early favorite Villar.
Thrilla’ in Manila
The way things are shaping up, the presidential campaign of 2016—like the one in 2010—will be a battle of old political names again, coming from traditional dynasties as well as new ones.
This early, former President Estrada has ignited excitement with a storied rerun, possibly for mayor of Manila. Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier hadn’t seen a Thrilla’ in Manila the likes of which Estrada can produce—just like in the movies.
(The author is chief executive of Marbella International Business Consultancy, a political risk management think tank. Comments are welcome at email mibc2006@gmail.com. He is a veteran of numerous presidential, senatorial and congressional elections since 1967.)
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