By Art Cariaga Correspondent
Politics is the chief Philippine pastime – from the corridors of power in Makati and Binondo to the beer and karaoke sessions in barangay or village sari-sari stores — so it would be unthinkable to have a newspaper without a political piece.
Strange bedfellows will be the rule in the presidential campaign of 2016 where early horsetrading is already being waged but vehemently denied. Old elites and family dynasties have learned to team up with nouveau riche showbiz celebrities, to clamp together their captive votes from the poor but prolific classes to win another pivotal election in the country’s modern history. In a country up to now drifting in the sea of an identity crisis, having not yet fully learned to love and care for its own, every election is a pivotal exercise that either moves the national psyche forward or, as more often, backward.
Hear now the first fearless forecast, not meant for the fainthearted among those who wish for maturity in Philippine pols. Setting aside the usual candidacies mounted more for personal fund-raising as we have seen in the Loren Legarda, Ping Lacson and Miriam Defensor forays in previous elections, it will be a three-cornered no-holds-barred slamfest.
Three odd combinations for president and vice president are in the lead in seeking to rewrite the political book – Bongbong Marcos and Jinggoy Estrada, Jojo Binay and Chiz Escudero, and Mar Roxas and Pia Cayetano. Surprise? Make no mistake about it: there is logic in this lunacy, method in this madness.
At this point, Jojo Binay is widely touted even among Senate grunts as the man to beat. After slaying the dragon that Mar Roxas thought he was, Binay found his sea legs after initial stumbles that were irritating Noynoy, and showed skillful positioning that has earned him satisfaction ratings even higher than the President’s. But an early lead is a poor gauge of how the ratings will go, and often becomes a baggage as soon as the campaign heats up. Raul Roco and Manny Villar’s early dominance and spectacular fall in ratings come to mind.
Bongbong Marcos, especially in a killer tandem with Jinggoy Estrada, will be the most formidable force as the Marcos bullions are largely intact and together with Erap’s slush fund from local taipans will give this duo the kind of money that would make the Macapagal – Villar cabal’s Php 10-billion campaign seem like a pauper’s parade.
By the way, people not in the loop are wondering how GMA ended up being congresswoman of Pampanga when she had no apparent need for it. Actually, she had to run for congresswoman so that, in the Villar presidency that she and Manny had plotted, she will become the Speaker and protect her back (and her Swiss accounts) as Manny watches his. Given Villar’s betrayal of Erap, the Speakership play was GMA’S kontra- double cross gambit which Gibo Teodoro knew all along but pleaded ignorant of. He was busy drooling over his Godzillan fee for playing the charade of his candidacy based, ironically, on his “galing at talino” (smartness and intelligence).
Bongbong and Jinggoy actually are not that excited about running in 2016 but must give in to their wheelchair-bound parents, Imelda and Erap, both prodding their dutiful sons for a last hurrah and recovery of lost pride and a shot at a Libingan ng mga Bayani burial for themselves and frozen Ferdie. For himself, Erap bought a Tondo house recently to establish his residency and is a shoo-in for Manila mayor in 2013 now that the ailing Fred Lim can no longer contest it. Graceful exit actually as nobody could beat Erap in most of the Metro cities as affirmed by his second-place finish to Noynoy in a national joust.
Bongbong and Jinggoy both can count on the coast-to-coast fanatical support of the teeming D and E classes. In fairness, both have an undeniable charm radiating from their families’ telenovela history and their boyish-in-middle-age cuteness. Loyalist quarters attest that, unlike their moms, they haven’t had stem cell injections and nip-and-tuck assists.
This early, these two look unstoppable. They have taken seriously their public duties. They are young and open to new ideas. And whatever you think of their fathers’ excesses, why blame it on the sons! Still, expect thousands of Filipinos to begin dusting up their old immigration applications to Canada.
Binay’s posturing as gun-toting Rambotito with his Alpha Phi Omega brods when Marcos had visibly lost his grip on Malacanang and reality during the Yellow Fever of 1986 had so charmed the impressionable Cory Aquino that she made him acting Makati mayor when she was installed as virtual dictator. He is already on provincial sorties. He knows he is the man to beat now and will likely be the man who gets beaten if he doesn’t sew up more sister-cities with Makati where his son, Junjun, is caretaker mayor. No matter how much Jojo has taken from the Ayalas and other business houses in Makati in disputed tax discrepancies and from ownership by proxy of unlisted units for every high rise that goes up in the premier city, he will not have the inexhaustible war chest of the Marcos-Estrada team.
But he tends to gravitate to fellow wordsmith and UP alumnus, and companero Chiz Escudero. It would be a good choice even if Chiz has very little stash in his Philippine bank accounts because Chiz, much like Jojo, is a natural politician and would put a chameleon to shame for his ability to assume the colors of his surroundings.
Chiz looks, sounds, even smells like a starchy clean if baby-hugging pol, a man of the masses given to wearing t-shirts one size too small in his imaging of a huggable boy-next-door that little girls can take home to their condos. It may be the reason why his wife left him. He has spellbinding skills in using simple street talk to explain complex legal issues and economic principles to jeepney drivers, fish vendors and state university scholars.
But in reality his chief backers in recent elections were Imelda Marcos, Lucio Tan and Danding Cojuangco.He was jettisoned by kingmaker Danding only when Chiz insisted, correctly at hindsight,as the better bet than Loren Legarda. Of course, Loren had no real chance for the presidency but, given her own powers at pretense, she got Villar to fund her vice presidential bid when Villar refused to give in to Noli de Castro’s billion-peso blackmail of a budget to become his running mate. The amount asked was said to be much higher than what Kabayan got from Gloria when they teamed up or, for that matter, higher than what Ping got from the First Gentleman for refusing to withdraw in favor of Fernando Poe who was eventually cheated of victory by the Cebuanos in 2004.
There is talk in Bureau of Internal Revenue pantries that somebody bought, not necessarily in her name, a Dasmarinas mansion for some Php 500 million, and while this could be idle palaver, it helps explain to Villar why his team went down in flames at the last leg of the country’s first computerized polls.
The more annoying of pundits in breakfast forums say that Manny Paquiao is a closet president-wanna-be and might be hoodwinked, he being unschooled and dying to be accepted in erudite circles, into running as Jojo’s vice president.There is no denying that Paquiao has 99 per cent name recall – the 1 percent representing people in asylums — and can karaoke-croak his way to voters’ hearts. And the Php 2 billion he has in liquid form and paper assets wouldn’t hurt Binay either. But he is vulnerable on many fronts, among them Mommy Dionesia, his Hermes-touting Vicky Belo endorser wife Jinkee, his other women – he likes them with Brazilian fenders, front and rear – and his friends and fans Chavit Singson, Lito Atienza, Manny Villar, and First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, who are not very pleasant people to be with unless you can punch as heavily as Paquiao.
Mar Roxas, smarting from the stealth bombing of his candidacy got from Binay and the residual fallout of his unpopular decision to marry Corina Sanchez, may arguably be the most intelligent, most qualified, and most deserving to become President. But Filipino voters are not famous for choosing the most deserving and Mar’s loser image has given him a huge handicap as many pollsters believe there has never been a successful comeback from electoral defeat for the presidency.
This is why Mar’s handlers are looking with moist eyes on having him run for a Capiz congressional seat, which is his for the asking as the province’s favorite son although he is not that popular in Roxas City itself (Binay threatened to trounce him in his hometown) as Mar had no projects there to his name. Then, after he has regained the forgotten taste of victory, Mar will run for Speaker and win it hands down with Noynoy Aquino’s backing. Sonny Belmonte can run for the Senate but he will probably choose to reclaim his old seat at Quezon City hall that he continues to hold in absentia. Bistek Bautista is too much of a realist not to run instead for Congress, thereby clearing the way for Joy Belmonte to become Mayor after Dad gets tired of it.
The problem for Mar with the Speakership is that it is cursed. Joe de Venecia and the late Ramon Mitra were highly popular and effective Speakers among what now has ballooned to 220 plus Congresspersons, including arrantly fake party-listers like Mikey Arroyo who supposedly stands for tricycle drivers and security guards. But the previous Speakers’ candidacies for President were disasters as they were betrayed openly by the Congress brats who used to genuflect in their path in the name of fat pork barrels and foreign junkets. So, is this a plot of Executive Secretary Jojo Ochoa and the Balay group that wants Mar to get trapped in the trappings of the Speakership?
Despite himself, Mar is a very likeable, decent, fully grown Mama’s boy to Manay Judy and will still have many people panting to become his Vice President, but if his recent defeat has shaved some of his hubris and made him wiser, his secret weapon will be in the person of Pia Cayetano. She has no money, yes, but Pia – respectable Senate performance, single mom, certified iron-man triathlete, Barby Doll good looks (a phrase she hates) in her slim, 5’6” stature inherited from American genes – she will bring in the thousands of starry eyed NGO-volunteer troops that formed the chief weapon of Noynoy and which Mar had alienated. Pia will also harvest the women’s vote, becoming more vociferous and organized by the day – consider the kitchen cadres who began the yellow ribbon stickers and baller ID’s that mushroomed into millions — and the support of Makati business clubs and the American and European chambers’ blessings.
She will be the unexpected bolt from the blue that will reinvigorate the lackluster Mar image that surfaced after he dismissed the PR genius Louie Morales who had coined the Mr. Palengke brand and ran away with the Parokya ni Edgar blockbuster song, “Mister Suabe,” that made him Senate topnotcher on his first-ever outing in the rough and tumble of political hustings.
Luck, as the Chinese say, is when preparation meets opportunity. So luck will still be the chief arbiter of which candidates will take the pole position when 2016 rolls in. But as of this point, these are the viable jerseys at the starting gate. There are others waiting as blushing bridesmaids. Among them are Kiko Pangilinan, who apes Jack Kennedy when most voters can hardly remember Bill Clinton, but sadly Sharon has become too fat and KC might marry Piolo Pascual and run away to Paris when she discovers why people are saying he is gay; and Tito Sotto who fantasizes about a teamup with Bongbong, but is too laid back to learn Visayan (his namesake granddad was the highly respected Cebuano leader of the First Philippine Assembly which antedated Congress) so he could fill the vacuum of the humongous Visayan vote. The Bisaya Daku vote is much bigger than the Ilocano bloc, but orphaned by the ever-feuding Osmenas and corruption allegations against the Garcias and Duranos, who are among those suspected of rigging the vote for Gloria in 2004. And since senior citizens have been rising in number and the onset of Alzheimer’s has addled a lot of once-respectable brains, one should not ignore the kingmaker delusions of Fidel Ramos and the senile rantings of Joker Arroyo.
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